Softening the requirement to sell export revenue may weaken the ruble, but experts from aif.ru are confident that an overly strong ruble also does not benefit the economy, and if the authorities have made such a decision, it means they have reached the necessary exchange rate.
Earlier, the government decided to ease the requirement for large businesses to mandatory sell their export revenue. Previously, companies had to exchange 80% of their revenue into rubles, but now they are allowed to sell only 60% of the foreign currency earned abroad.
Investment specialist Alexander Kuznetsov explained that the decree on the sale of foreign currency revenue among the largest exporters was initially adopted to stabilize the country’s financial market and the ruble exchange rate. “The fact that today the requirement has been softened to 60% instead of the previous 80% indicates that the ruble exchange rate has returned to the range of 90-95 rubles per dollar, 94-102 per euro, and 12-13 rubles per yuan. Why is this beneficial for us? Excessive strengthening of the ruble harms the economy due to lower revenues to the budget from the export of goods, thereby leading to a deficit. In addition, active currency selling worsens liquidity in this market, which is essential for importers. Today, after the decree was adopted, the dollar rose by 3.3%, the euro by 2.65%, and the yuan by 0.81%. So, there will be enough funds for all government and social programs.
Founder of investment company SharesPro Denis Astafiev agrees that the Central Bank, as well as the state in general, acted correctly by strengthening the ruble. “They reduced the volume of the sale of foreign currency revenue by 20%, which contributed to the stabilization of the exchange rate. If the exchange rate was around 90-93 rubles per dollar at that time, it could have risen to 97 rubles. Thus, with minimal effort, effective adjustments were made to the project, which worked for a certain period after the decree. This once again proves that a strong ruble is not beneficial for our country. Therefore, it is always important to remember this and not miss the opportunity to buy dollars when the exchange rate falls, if desired,” clarified Astafiev.
Financial expert in global financial markets Andrey Plotnikov also did not deny that such a decision will somewhat strengthen the position of the dollar against our national currency, but much also depends on the Central Bank’s further decisions. “Undoubtedly, the ruble may and should weaken on such a decision. We see a futures contract that is traded for the future already today at a rate of 87 kopecks. The ruble exchange rate to the digital dollar is in the range of 92-93, so at the moment we still have a trend towards strengthening the ruble, and if the Central Bank, for example, raises the key rate in June, it can certainly stop the ruble’s weakening. Therefore, I think that for now, until mid-June, we will see the ruble in a convenient range for everyone from 89 to 92,” summed up the interviewee.
Although in general, not all experts consider investing in the dollar a profitable investment. Earlier, we cited an opinion according to which uncontrolled growth of the US national debt will lead to an economic collapse in the USA and global dedollarization.