The Russian stock market started the week positively. The Moscow Exchange index moved higher, reaching 3340.47 points. At the end of the day, the Moscow Exchange index rose by 0.14% to 3320.31 points, while the RTS index gained 0.13% and reached 1153.65 points. “The next technical target for the Moscow Exchange index is 3500 points. This week, presidential elections will take place in Russia. Traditionally, the market performs well during these periods. Therefore, continued upward movement can be expected,” – commented analysts from Solid Investment Company.
The main topic of the day is the news about the exchange of frozen assets. The commission has outlined the conditions – the exchange will take place in four stages. The Ministry of Finance has appointed the Investment Chamber as the organizer of the exchange, with the exchange amount per investor not exceeding 100,000 rubles. The process will start on March 22 and should be completed by the summer. The terms for the exchange of blocked assets are published on the organizer’s website Investment Chamber LLC, and on the Bank of Russia website answers to questions can be obtained.
The professor of the Higher School of Economics Evgeny Kogan believes that the absence of discounts for non-residents is important – the price for each asset will be based on Western exchanges. According to him, the news about the exchange of blocked assets is exceptionally positive for Russian residents, finally there are some deadlines and details. “But we cannot ignore the difficulties: depositary swaps require the participation of all parties, and this exchange is not coordinated with Euroclear. After all, this would require establishing connections,” – notes the expert.
Analysts from InvestFuture are already speculating about what will happen when the procedure is completed: “If everything goes well, investors will receive money in September, and they will have to think about what to do next. By that time, the Central Bank rate will likely decrease, making deposits and bonds less attractive. Therefore, the majority of money – though not all – will flow into the Russian stock market. Who will benefit from this?” According to experts, the clear beneficiaries are blue-chip stocks. Sberbank, LUKOIL, Rosneft will definitely take the lion’s share of this pie, believe the analysts at InvestFuture. In addition, among the “winners” could be the Moscow Exchange and IT companies.
Among the leaders in growth on the Russian market today were Detsky Mir (+21.7%), QIWI (+12.9%), HeadHunter (+5.9%), M.Video (+5.6%), and “prefers” of Transneft (+2.4%). Closing the trading session, Surgutneftegaz (preferred -1.6%, ordinary -1%) and Yandex (-1.5%) were among the underperformers. Today it became known that the new parent company of Yandex went public. Also on Monday, Yandex filed an application to list its common shares on the Moscow Exchange.
Tomorrow Sberbank will report on RAS for February 2024. The bank’s securities are currently trading around 300 rubles per share. Alexey Kuzmin, Director of Development and Strategic Planning at NFC-Savings JSC, notes that negative signals flashed in Sberbank’s shares: “Within 10 minutes of trading closer to midday on Monday, the shares corrected by more than 1%. Such dynamics in the most liquid stock contributes to increased doubts about the ability to continue growth and may be a harbinger of a much larger market decline.”
Analysts at InvestFuture do not expect strong growth from Sberbank’s shares right now, but if there is a correction, it will be short-lived. “Sberbank’s shares are attractive even at current levels, but rushing to buy ‘at the market’ is definitely not worth it, a correction is quite possible. Especially with the elections coming up, investors get nervous in such periods and can inadvertently damage the market,” – share their opinion the experts.
In the Russian currency market, trading is taking place without a clear direction. At the end of the day, the dollar rose by 0.09% to 90.685 rubles, the euro increased by 0.08% to 99.01, and the yuan was up by 0.01% to 12.602.
As of 20:40 Moscow time, Brent crude oil is up 0.1% at $82.16, while Light crude oil is priced at $77.85 (-0.2%). In Europe, trading closed mixed. American indices are correcting: as of 20:45 Moscow time, the S&P 500 index is down 0.1%, Dow Jones is down 0.02%, and Nasdaq is down 0.4%.