The Russian market confidently trended downwards on Tuesday: by the end of the day, the Moscow Exchange index fell by 1.14% to 3207.61 points, and the RTS index dropped by 1.03% to 1094.24 points. “The pressure on domestic stocks was influenced by a certain deterioration in the situation on foreign stock exchanges due to weakening expectations of an early start to the easing of monetary policies by leading central banks, primarily the Federal Reserve, as well as an evening decline in oil prices. The reemergence of the topic of sanctions did not inspire confidence for new purchases,” commented Igor Dodonov, Deputy Head of the Stock Analysis Department at Finam.
Today’s main newsmaker was VTB Bank (-2.8%), as several pieces of news affected the bank’s stock quotes. The bank’s financial statement for 2023 was generally positive. “The profit for the previous year corresponds to the previously announced forecasts by management. The bank has almost completely recovered most of its operational indicators to pre-crisis levels of 2021. We believe that VTB is quite successfully rebuilding its lost positions,” note analysts at PSB. However, the fact that the bank does not plan to resume dividend payments until 2026 did not sit well with investors. And most importantly, VTB wants to carry out a reverse split, meaning that one share of the bank will be more expensive. The nominal value of a share will be 50 rubles instead of one kopeck. According to experts, this will not affect the investment attractiveness of the stocks. Analyst opinions can be found here.
Polymetal’s stocks continue to decline after news of the sale of its Russian business; today the shares lost over 7%. Others whose performance was worse than the market include “Surgutneftegaz” preference shares (-2.3%), Aeroflot (-2.8%), and Norilsk Nickel (-2.5%).
Rostelecom’s stocks (+2%) continue to rally. Not long ago, the company announced dividend payments for 2023, which seems to have inspired market participants. “We recommend accumulating Rostelecom stocks in the short term. The fundamental target near 91–92 rubles in 2024 is not so far off. The reasons for the growth remain the same — the dividend factor, which stimulates demand for stocks. Overcoming 91–92 rubles will mean attempting to surpass 100 rubles per share considerably earlier than the end of the year, considering the dividend factor,” commented analysts at Rikom-Trust.
ALROSA’s stocks (+1.2%) also performed well. “The company’s management’s statement that ALROSA intends to mine 30 million carats of diamonds in 2024 and maintain this level in the future was the reason for the growth of these shares,” believes Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
As a result of the daily trading, the dollar lost 0.04% and amounted to 92.298 rubles, the euro increased by 0.32% to 99.79, and the yuan was up by 0.15% to 12.8. “Today, investors were watching news about the 13th package of anti-Russian sanctions. Restrictions may be agreed upon by the end of the week. This was known earlier, but the deadlines were not specified. During the ongoing tax period, the ruble still lacks support due to the low supply of currency in the domestic market,” said Vladislav Silaev, Senior Trader at Alfa-Capital.
During today’s trading, the euro reached a level of 100 rubles. “Since February 26, we have been predicting a correction for the EUR/RUB pair. It is unlikely to break the psychologically important mark of 100, coinciding with a strong resistance level for the euro on the first approach. Therefore, it is likely that in the coming days the pair will consolidate around this level,” believes Vladimir Chernov, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global.
There was a 24% decrease in the mean price of a perfume container in Russia
“Black gold” is declining: as of 20:20 Moscow time, Brent oil is losing 1.3% and costs $82.48, while a barrel of Light is worth $77.31 (-1.5%). In Europe, trading closed in different directions near zero. Overseas, there is negativity: as of 20:20 Moscow time, the S&P 500 index is down 0.76%, Nasdaq is down 1.56%, and the Dow Jones is down 0.33%. Hopes for a rapid easing of the FOMC in the U.S. are fading. “According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are currently estimating only an 8% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March, compared to almost 90% at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the likelihood of a rate cut in the U.S. in May is already estimated at just 35% by them, compared to 62% a week ago. In the coming days, the market’s attention will be focused on the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, as well as on the speeches of several representatives of the Fed, who may adjust expectations regarding the regulator’s further actions,” notes Igor Dodonov.
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