Experts from aif.ru mentioned that the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the key rate at the same level will force Russians to reconsider their plans to buy property or even become an incentive to switch to renting.
Not everything has changed
At the regular board of directors meeting on February 16, the decision was made to keep the interest rate at 16% per annum. This outcome was expected and logical for most experts: there is no need to raise it because inflation is decreasing, but at the same time, the pace of this process is not so active as to lower the discount rate.
Vitaly Chervyakov, founder and director in the investment real estate development company “Dreams in Square” shared that Currently, due to the high key rate, a large part of housing buyers in the economy and comfort segments have paused because normally about 80% of real estate transactions take place using mortgage funds during normal times.
“Every year, there are seasonal fluctuations in real estate demand. There is usually high demand in December, very low in January due to the large number of holidays and weekends, then activity begins to increase by February, reaching its peak in March. By May, demand decreases, again due to the large number of holidays. In June-July, buyer interest is not very active, but it starts to increase from August until December. However, the statistics of previous years have greatly changed this seasonality, as in the last three years something constantly happened that either increased demand – for example, preferential mortgages or completely stopped it – the increase in the key rate in March 2022 to 20%,” the specialist said.
Therefore, according to him, the current high refinancing rate has not yet had a clear impact on the real estate market – the statistics show insignificant changes in demand compared to previous years.
“I think that March will really be indicative, as by this time there will be enough accumulated deferred demand and a huge number of offers. And if at the meeting in March the Central Bank does not lower the key rate, it is likely that the cost of housing will slightly decrease. But by the end of the year, I think the property will decrease by no more than 5-10%, since those who recently bought expensive apartments are unlikely to want to sell them at a loss. Therefore, it is possible that rental prices will continue to rise, as was the case in 2023. With such a high rate, buyers will not take out mortgages and will continue to rent, and sellers, in turn, not seeing demand for purchase, will withdraw properties from sale and transfer them to rent,” the expert concluded.
Mortgage under attack
Apart from the high key rate, Anna Tsybina, director of the “Anna Petrovna’s Mortgage Center” believes that it is logical to consider other tightening measures in the mortgage lending market. “From December 23, 2023, preferential family mortgage and government support can only be obtained once. Previously, there were no such restrictions. Also, the down payment has been increased to 30%, and banks have introduced commissions for issuing preferential mortgages.
The average rate for secondary housing is 18%. All these factors have led to a slight decrease in the cost of real estate. In addition, more stringent requirements have been introducedК заемщикам, которые прошли проверку своих взносов в Пенсионный фонд России, доступны ипотечные кредиты. Изменение ключевой ставки повлияет на стоимость недвижимости и выдачу ипотечных кредитов. Покупатели начнут предпочитать объекты меньшей площади или находящиеся в менее популярных локациях. Предполагается, что ставка ЦБ РФ будет снижена весной», пояснила Цыбина.
Доктор экономических наук, профессор РЭУ им. Г. В. Плеханова Наталья Проданова отмечает, что высокая ключевая ставка на протяжении длительного времени сильно влияет на рынок вторичного жилья. «Ипотека в этом сегменте не субсидируется государством, поэтому спрос на вторичное жилье будет продолжать снижаться. Вероятно, продавцы жилья будут ждать и не станут выкладывать на продажу квадратные метры. При принятии решения о дальнейшем повышении ключевой ставки все эти тенденции укрепятся еще сильнее. Однако есть и положительные моменты — привлекательные процентные ставки по банковским вкладам. Вкладчики смогут неплохо заработать, разместив свои деньги на депозите», — добавила эксперт.
В течение 2023 года ЦБ РФ несколько раз повышал ключевую ставку, и в декабре 2023 года этот показатель достиг 16%. В конце сентября 2023 года глава Центрального Банка РФ Эльвира Набиуллина заявила, что рост или снижение ключевой ставки зависит от ситуации в экономике.